Public sentiment is overwhelmingly negative toward US tariffs imposed under President Trump's administration, with many commenters expressing frustration over the economic burdens and strained international relations. There is a strong sense of betrayal from Canadian commenters and solidarity with Brazil against perceived bullying, highlighting concerns about the effectiveness of tariffs and their detrimental effects on global trade dynamics. The overall mood reflects disillusionment with current leadership and a desire for policy change.

US Government

Canadian Government

Brazilian Government

&gt; many businesses may have rerouted supply chains through third countries in response to tariffs and other trade restrictions targeting China.

I agree, this is key. 

All the US has achieved with tariffs is paying extra shipping and processing costs to third parties that provide no value to them outside of avoiding tariffs. It may sting China a little bit as costs rise in the US and demand falls, but the costs will largely fall upon US importers and consumers.

imarqui

The break down is misleading since a lot of the imports from the "rest of the world" is big ticket items not the stuff most consumers are buying day in and day out.  
China is 50% of all of our daily consumer goods, including appliances, machine parts, clothing, and plastic goods and our 2nd largest trading partner. Mexico (1st largest)  due to automobiles and farming materials/equipment and Canada (2nd largest) due to oil, coal, and agricultural products. The EU is pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machines.

Friendlyvoices

ADJUST FOR INFLATION OR DONT POST. USELESS.

[deleted]

Isolating China and getting them to become friends with Russia is basically asking for the future ww3. We already are in a low intensity ww3

koshka91

Major decoupling from China 

Markets at basically the equivalent rate in 2 months

Global 10% tariff implemented

TrUmP dOeSnT kNoW wHaT hE iS dOiNg

passionatebreeder

All this yapping about unfair trade with China was all about racist and sinophobos. Americans dumbest racists   out there

Satprem1089

So we're getting a higher percentage of stuff from countries who have higher quality goods and don't hate us, nicccccce.

tonylouis1337

Icy-Establishment272

gigas-chadeus

In case anyone needs reminding of this - always be sceptical of government statistics. There is always an agenda involved.

Prime255

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&gt; “If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States, eliminate your tariff, and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers, we will, perhaps consider an adjustment to this letter,” Trump said in the letters, using capital letters to emphasise particular words.

Kudos to the author for the subtle dig at Trump's illiteracy.

wafflesareforever

Laos? A poor country that still has its soil polluted with millions of unexploded US bombs from the vietnam war, that they are still decades later trying to clear up..? Now they attack again? Christ, the US is beyond any sense of decency. Repugnant.

badablahblah

“Trump on Monday set out plans for a 40% tariff on goods from Myanmar and Laos, a 36% tariff on goods from Thailand and Cambodia, a 35% tariff on goods from Serbia and Bangladesh, a 32% tariff on Indonesia, a 30% tariff on goods from South Africa and a 25% tariff on goods from Japan, S.Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia.”


US trade from ChatGPT 

Country
Tariff Rate
U.S. Imports
U.S. Exports
U.S. Trade Balance
🇯🇵 Japan
25%
$148.2 billion
$79.7 billion
−$68.5 billion
🇰🇷 South Korea
25%
$131.5 billion
$65.5 billion
−$66.0 billion
🇲🇾 Malaysia
25%
$46.2 billion
$19.4 billion
−$26.8 billion
🇹🇭 Thailand
36%
$63.3 billion
$15.6 billion
−$45.6 billion
🇮🇩 Indonesia
32%
$28.05 billion
$10.16 billion
−$17.89 billion
🇹🇳 Tunisia
25%
$1.1 billion
$0.504 billion
−$0.620 billion
🌍 Others*
30–40%
Minimal

What a strange list. It includes two major allies Japan and South Korea and has made them angry but continuing to negotiate, increasingly alienated from the US. Again, Trump inadvertently helps archenemy China.

From Japan:

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15891652

From S. Korea:

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/07/08/HTBZP2EQXRBPBPZHSYYK4DU4VI/

On what basis were the countries and tariff rates determined? US has a trade deficit with all the countries included, as it does with many others. Why 40% on Laos and Myanmar each with under $1 billion exports the US? It all looks arbitrary and irrational.

Useful-Scratch-72

Damnit Taco strikes again! And it's not even Taco Tuesday! Welp luckily we know he'll just chicken out like he always does, poor weakling is just dying to make 1 friggin deal with a country lol

No_Confidence7355

Is this just a version of being anti-immigrant but in economic form? It feels like he is just putting on a show for his base that he is being tough on foreigners but never actually following through on his threat or he just walks them back almost immediately. They also seem to be anti-tourist and are just destroying that sector both intentionally and as collateral damage. He seems desperate to show that America's problems are caused by "outsiders" and not the business and political elites in America - unless the Americans are evil Democrats.

lilbitcountry

I think we have reached the point where the "Oh noes...anyway...." meme applies.  Absolutely *no one* believes that whatever tariff nonsense he is announcing today, will actually happen.  There will be multiple recissions, revisions, delays, and outright cancellations before anything actually happens.  If anything at all.  Just as before, TACO accurately applies.

Birdy_Cephon_Altera

He has given countries 90 days to reach a deal and now is giving them another 3 weeks. Those that don't make a deal don't want to give up their trade barriers to US good which Trump is trying to end. They want access to our markets while protected their own because they can't compete against us.

They will deserve whatever tariffs that are imposed. They had their chance

StedeBonnet1

Will 26% of world GDP win against the remaining 74% or will they lose?

Find out in the next episode of "Trump Tariffs" on Disney and HBOMAX

Soepoelse123

Yes.  I often make the argument that even if you believe in pro-America policies (which I do) Trump has bad execution of them.  Even if it is true NATO allies don't pay their fair share of defense, Trump completely alienates them at the negotiating table.  You should threaten them in private (not public) and in public come out with trade deals that deepen our ties with our allies and blunt Chinese economic imperialism.  

And, rather than all the fluff social programs USAID was doing, the US should be funding infrastructure around the world and becoming a creditor to every developing nation the way China is with the belt and road initiative.  We should be encouraging countries to use USD as the global reserve currency and tie their financial systems to ours, as our financial markets are one of our key economic drivers.  Trump's rhetoric has the effect of driving these countries out.

aliph

TLDR: China knows what it's doing. Trump is a drooling idiot.

copingcabana

Trump will lose the trade war and the average American is going to feel the impact. 
This is a good opportunity for c+1 and partners to dethrone the USD.
What Trump administration doesn’t understand is that running deficits actually helps the US Dollar in a way remain the global reserve currency. And having USD as a reserve currency gives Americans perks that no other countries get.  All these actions of the trump administration is surely going to challenge the dollar hegemony, perhaps petrodollars will remain but the world is transitioning to cleaner energy sources.

Rare_Cream1022

China has trumped the orange con man. They have cancelled their gas from America. The Americans have tankers sitting in their harbours with no where to go. They'll sell it to other countries at a loss. The Chinese have been a sending their gas purchased from the Middle East to Europe. they have signed a deal with Woodside to provide them with gas for the next 15 yrs. And they get it in ten days less than they were getting it from America.
Talk about crapping in your own bed.

choldie1

This is all puff, no substance and still somehow wildly wrong. This has bot written all over it. 

Idk why I even bother but anyway… A trade war is a lose-lose scenario-mutually assured economic destruction. That said, the U.S. holds the stronger position.

China's economy has been steadily deteriorating for years. Interest rates are hovering near zero or negative, and losing 15% of its exports would be devastating. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports/united-states. While China could theoretically sell off U.S. Treasuries in response, doing so would devalue one of its most significant assets-and the U.S. has the means to buy those Treasuries back, either directly or through private industry. 

In response to a sharp export decline, China might be forced to devalue its currency to stimulate trade with other countries. But currency devaluation makes imports more expensive, stoking inflation. China is especially vulnerable to inflation due to its heavy reliance on imported minerals, technology, grain and the ongoing collapse of its real estate sector. https://www.iwkoeln.de/en/studies/simon-gerards-iglesias-juergen-matthes-chinas-dependence-on-the-west-for-imports-and-technologies.html. Rising inflation would force the Chinese government to raise interest rates, which could trigger a deeper economic crisis.

By contrast, the U.S. has several strategic levers at its disposal: it can purchase its own Treasuries, incentivize private actors like Warren Buffett to buy treasuries (who's stepped up in the past), issue short-term bonds at favorable rates, and even pursue limited austerity measures to reduce the deficit (which we are already doing anyway). These moves would make refinancing existing debt more manageable-and put added pressure on China.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2025/01/27/is-chinas-economy-entering-historical-garbage-time--part-1/

https://www.npr.org/2024/01/30/1227554424/evergrande-china-real-estate-economy= property-collapse

Extension-Temporary4

This is no longer an economics sub. Chinese stability falls over in a matter of months. They have entire cities bankrupting like Guandong. Read and learn don’t posit and spew based on articles

Felabryn

Wrong wrong wrong, Chinas major ports are all slowing or stalled and trans pacific shipment have plummeted 

So China is slowing down dramatically and their economy is export driven not consumption driven 

If the lower the value of their currency they will have trillions in outflows

sungod-1

Working-Bonus-6851

I'm currently in Vietnam and just went to the Vietnam Textile &amp; Garment Industry trade show today. Most of the exhibitors were Chinese companies, and I got to talk casually with them as they were all really friendly and helpful. The sentiment and vibe were that everybody is really concerned. One denim fabric supplier I spoke to said they sell a lot to Vietnam and Bangladesh garment factories, but 80% of their products go to the US. I noticed they were very self-aware and made it a point to emphasize that they want to be partners providing the machines and supplies, and that they are not apparel factories or fashion brands themselves. The region is concerned that if China cannot sell to the US, they may aggressively try to dump their products into each local market, and local markets cannot compete with them on price. Apps like Temu have already been banned.

On another note, Vietnam will still be reliant on getting supplies (fabrics, buttons, etc.) from China. The automated machines from China have gotten really impressive. If anything, the US should have bought all their machines in advance and just run dark factories.

The other things to consider about China—and reasons they are going to have a rough time as well:

* If you think US stocks are taking a beating, a lot of Chinese (outside of AI) stocks will be hurt badly as well.
* I'm not sure if China fully resolved Evergrande and other real estate corporate bonds and derivatives around that, and if they still have a ticking time bomb.
* Youth male unemployment in China is really high.

Also, none of the countries would prefer China over the US in patrolling and policing shipping lanes.

alanism

I think Trump is intentionally sabotaging the US under orders from Russia.  They want us to stop being in charge of the world, and we're conveniently giving up our leadership role now.

-Clayburn

China expands through infrastructrure and trade, US expands through war and intimidation

Ok_Cardiologist2318

Is US indirectly trying to weak the USD and strengthen the Chinese Yuan. This will make the Chinese exporter's business tough. For this to happen, China has to dump USD bonds. At the end of this back and forth, Chinese Yuan might strengthen by 30-50%.

binuuday

It's really up to the bond market.  Countries are already starting to dump.  Trump bent over already.  He will again bend on China.

He's weak, and he doesn't understand how things work.

Doza13

Referring to Trump as a novice player is possibly the nicest truthful thing anyone will say about him all year.

Dr_Beatdown

Yeah, I have to object to various points from your post.

&gt; over a decade ago with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative. This ambitious strategy not only aimed to enhance global trade routes but also to extend China's influence through significant investments in infrastructure and soft power diplomacy across continents. 

By 2025, this initiative has been a failure to achieve its strategic goal. It was successful in creating employment and knowledge for Chinese firms, but the larger goals have evaporated. In a Trade war, this 'Belt and Road' initiative would not offer them any advantage against US.

&gt; noticeable shift in global manufacturing. Countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Mexico have emerged as key players in the diversification of supply chains.

This is also the key reason why trump had tariffed all these other countries and I have no doubt that when china uses other proxies to get over these tarriffs, those nations will also see the brunt. Fro your list, you can write off bangladesh and myanmar because of their own internal conflicts. 

People who blankly say US will win or China will win have no idea which way this might go.

sri_peeta

Did you just type this,, “Why is the U.S. losing the trade war with China? Include Belt and Road, supply chain shifts, and use a chess metaphor.” Into ChatGPT to get this response? This is just way too clearly written by AI. Why are people just posting AI written text into Reddit and passing it off as their own?

elvesandnutella

China has created an industrial juggernaut that is irresistible to most nations. 20% of the cars sold in Mexico are Chinese and this is rising fast. We can raise a wall of tariffs but the flood of products from China will surge around us into every other country without similar barriers. Those countries are paying for the imports with their currencies, which means that China is accumulating assets in those countries and will own a huge share of stocks, bonds, real estate, factories, etc. around the world. In other words China is on track to literally own (and therefore control) much of the world.

kitebum

Trump I guess is trying to toss the board

l0ktar0gar

Idk, the more I hear from Scott Bessent the more I believe this dude understand the global economic chess game better than any of us. China exports like 4X as much from us as we export to them, so the tariffs disproportionately hurt their economy. All reports I’ve heard are how chinas real estate market is still crushed from evergrande and the economy is struggling right now. It really will all depend on how the new global economic system unfolds, because they’re current trying to completely restructure the global economic order.

schmelf

Trump specifically excludes professionals and experts and only includes meme clowns in his decision making process lol. He stands no chance against China

Atomic-Avocado

Exactly Trump does not understand the other 8 Billion people in the world 🌍 don’t need him

Old-List-9226

We already lost with Trump winning. So. The rest is just the dying breaths.

spook_filled_donuts

You think China wasn't working hand-in-hand with Putin to make Trump turn into the monster that he is?Get a clue. China has not only been planning this, they've been laying the seeds of Donald Trump himself. All you have to do is know that that guy is insane. Get an insane person to run a country, it's guaranteed to collapse. All you have to do is trick people into voting for the asshole.

pegaunisusicorn

Don’t forget to mention that Obama had the U.S. primely positioned to eliminate over 18,000 forms of taxes among 11 different countries with a focus on East Asia… and Trump nuked the TPP his first day in office

Introverted_Extrovrt

Trump isn't a novice player, he's a toddler eating the pieces. He and his acolytes just can't seem to understand the value of soft power, probably because they can't easily attach a dollar value to it.

Trump's conception of trade is something like "my grocery store is treating me badly because I give them money and I get groceries. That's a trade imbalance!"

He's the dumbest man to sit in the oval office and he has the whole world on a string right now. It's short term terrible for the world, long term terrible for the United States because the rest of the world is now going to clip that string.

CharlieBravo74

Trump uses China as a pretext to rob Americans. He doesn't care about the USD, re-industrialization, or trade deficits. He is squeezing you like a lemon.

Garlicluvr

Shame about the dodgy loans they made, and the crippling debt they caused. It really could have been handled better.

iChinguChing

Who would have thought selling condos is easier than managing the largest economy?  
In his first term he publicly admitted healthcare was complex, and did little to nothing to fix it. Healthcare is just a small part of the entire economy. He found healthcare complex, now he is learning the entire economy is much, much more complex. Once again, we are witnessing and being victimized by this condo salesman's deep, deep incompetence and foolish confidence.

[https://youtu.be/b\_8UFNQqk7k](https://youtu.be/b_8UFNQqk7k)

ShortUSA

Sort of simple  ,, treasury bonds  sales is what keeps America alive.  , gives America money to spend beyond its means.     Cost of labor extremely high  for us to compete.   Example.  Trump wants. EU. To buy more of our  meat products  BUT.  EU cheaper than American  and taste better 
     Just one example of many problems

ImmediateDimension95

Impressive_Mango_191

So China is continuing to own more and more of US Assets and Equities. Americans are drowning in Debt forced to work 2 jobs to make ends meat. The 40 hour work week has all but collapsed. You did such great analysis on Trump Tariffs how about you do the same level of analysis on how we could actually help the middle class &amp; working class. Then you wouldn't have to worry about Trumpism

We had a saying in the military. A bad plan is better than no plan. Please spend you energy advocating for better solutions and real plans. Instead of just orange man bad. 

(I am not a Trump supporters but liberals need to stop going down this nihilist/dystopian path. There is a future with hope if we build it and waste less energy on a 4 year president)

This issue started long before Trump and we need to find a new way forward after Trump. 

The heart attack didn't cause the heart disease. It's a symptom of it.

B_B_a_D_Science

At the end of the day who got more leverage

China at the end of the day got other markets it can sell to.

kkkan2020

Myanmar has not emerged as a growing power in global trade, sorry.  They are exploited for some raw materials but that is it.

lemonjello6969

No one will win the trade war. That is what Trump and to lesser extent Xi does not understand. Trade makes everyone richer.

Winning a trade war is lower more trade barriers because everyone sees how much it sucks. 

Some of you guys are looking at this like it’s team US vs Team China. 

All OP said all that planning China did so they can lose less and recover faster. That is not winning. Only having unemployment go up 3% rather than going up 5% still sucks.

Also, China will have more unemployment the US will have inflation. 

Politically China has an advantage as Trump and Vance have been rude whipping the public up so the public will not blame XI.

However, if all China wanted was Trump gone they would put their propaganda to be pro Harris.

Careless-Pin-2852

Thank you, The US is cutting helping other countries as China is ramping up things like Belt and Road.    Reaching out to poorer countries, doing obvious things like building roads helping most everyone in a country.   In a few years we will be pissed off that countries in Asia and Africa have a more favorable opinion of China as compared to the US.

chinmakes5

I hate Trump but this sounds like a surrogate of China trying to sow anger and apathy.

memaradonaelvis

Yeah, that's what Obamas TPP was about. Making sure China had less allies. I also think you wildly under represent the hate and fear all of Asia has for China. Chinas currently trying to steal water from India in their bordering mountains. There's recent video of Chinese and Indian soldiers fighting with brooms in the mountians. Go watch it. Its hilarious.

usgrant7977

kleighboy26

China also (mostly) divested itself of US bonds a decade ago or so. I personally find this to be one pf the most telling and alarming things.

No_Association5526

Everyone loses in a trade war. It's inherent to the concept of a trade war.

ProposalWaste3707

WearBhite

shut up dude it's not about tariffs it's about monetary standards and alliances

bestjaegerpilot

This is awesome!! I know this says 2000 to 2020 but it can show what you're talking about!! 

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/s/i9PwFKSn7e

BoysenberryAshamed

Honestly wish I could move to china where they have competent leadership

elderlygentleman

Trumps endgame is to take everything from the middle class and transfer it to the 0.01%. That way we finally get our first trillionaire. 


Sounds great, but it really isn't 

Chance_Airline_4861

Using the chess analogy, 🥭 thinks he’s found a genius move like the queens sacrifice.

Personal_Can_8433

https://youtu.be/eYPhdVTltFQ?si=1Z2epC6o7xlHEGgx

travelingmusicplease

nabokovian

Not only that, but tariffs work when they’re implemented as a strategic policy that is supported by robust manufacturing investments and the necessary infrastructure to facilitate a supply chain solution. This is just Willy nilly slapping tariffs on shit because of trade deficits. It’s f’ing stupid.

AnComApeMC69

China is playing chess and Trump is playing a very bad game of Tic Tac Toe.

redruss99

This isn’t a trade war. Donald Trump is the greatest con artist in history. Just look at his track record—bankruptcy after bankruptcy, and he still became president. Twice! The man is a genius. He even sold his meme coin twice—and he’ll probably do it a third time because people will still buy it. This has nothing to do with American economics. He’s playing the market, pure and simple. In fact, the more absurd his moves seem, the bigger the market shift. That’s the game.      

I sit back and find it hilarious that people are still trying to make sense where there is no sense because they refuse to accept the obvious.      

Everyone’s watching the scoreboard... meanwhile, the guy who rigged it is selling the popcorn.

rl_pending

It’s not even a novice chess player it’a a toddler knocking all the pieces off the board when they get called for moving 3 pieces a turn. Freaking crayon eaters over here. At least their bellies are full because their minds are empty.

Leading_Star5938

As everybody in the world has said, not only recently, there is no winner in a trade war. In sum the entire world will be worse off. This translates in less trade and thus less prosperity through diminished purchasing power. There is no way one can reverse course by bringing back the 1800s and thus expecting to increase prosperity. This is an idea of a deranged and senile mind, which will make millions of Americans and other people world wide suffer.

Pyros_Ind_21

Nonsense. The US issues reserve currency and all transactions in currency deals flow through the NY Fed clearing desk. 99.9% of people do not understand how vital the Dollar is to all transactions

Maleficent727

Conservatives are going to lose so badly that they will only be able to afford to rent Lib and no longer own them.

Slaves2Darkness

No doubt China is playing the long game.  It is too new to really see who is winning.  China has trade around the world, but they are not well liked because of copying ideas and making without care about patents.   This does allow a distrust of China which does not bode well long term.

NecessaryEmployer488

Socialists should not be Admin on a subreddit for Economics.

Walter_Steele

If America loses it’s because it went after Canada and Mexico along with China.

China is #4 after the EU as well. 

The US doesn’t actually do *that much* trade with China 

1maco

Saw an interview with a Chinese diplomat and he said something close to this, “China has been around 5000 years and didn’t need the US.  If the US wants to exclude themselves from the world, go ahead China can survive another 5000 years without the US.”  Victor Gau.   China will Judo us to our knees.

LBH69

Also they’ve lost the respect and trust of the so called Allies.

Trilogy91

Exactly this☝️.All while those in the west have been distracted by nonsensical propaganda and culture wars.This has been a multi decade play by 🇨🇳in coordination with the ultimate distractor 🇷🇺.Like I commented in a previous post.Simply stepping foot outside western world borders would give you a pretty clear view as to what’s transpiring.The plan is further along than what many would like to believe.Best of luck everyone.🫡

Flyingblackdragon

&gt;If this were a chess game, China appears to have meticulously placed its pieces, ensuring a strategic advantage at every turn. In contrast, the United States' approach might seem less coordinated, akin to a novice player moving pawns without a clear endgame in sight. The disparity in strategy underscores the challenges the U.S. faces in countering China's calculated maneuvers.

We were playing along too and setting the stage to win under Obama (who remembers the TPP and TTIP?), but then Trump got elected the first time and yanked us out of those deals that were designed with that exact goal/scenario of containing China in mind. Biden restored a fair bit of confidence and was able to make some headway at repairing the damage that Donald did, but now he's returned and is absolutely erasing not just the last four years, but basically the entirety of the last century meaning that China is almost certainly going to come out on top now.

weggaan_weggaat

I don’t disagree with your post. However, you seemed to leave out the fact that US consumes 1/4 of world’s GDP. We are a nation of consumers. A marketer’s dream. 

That being said, this trade war is good for nobody &amp; even if we reset, a lot of damage has already been done. Instability/betrayal by the US executive branch, tends to deter any further investments into US. Anti-US sentiment is at an all time high. The bond markets are reflecting this imo.

OCDano959

Live_Hope8684

The U.S. has been losing the trade war for decades. That's why it's been experiencing trade deficits since the 1970s.

What you want to figure out is why that happened. The clue is "global reserve currency".

tokwamann

China’s biggest customer is the US. If you think the US not buying from them spent affect them, you’re ignoring a lot. A business with no customers isn’t a business.

thatVisitingHasher

The Mango Messiah is a complete idiot and he's surrounded by idiots and all they do is lie, lie, lie.

Xi is much much smarter and patient.

ocsurf74

China operates behind the scenes, manipulating global trade in ways that defy WTO rules. They should have been expelled and isolated decades ago, as far back as the Clinton era. Today, unless Trump can rally the EU and other allies, the U.S. faces a turbulent path ahead. His strongest leverage is America’s purchasing power—we consume roughly 80% of China’s exports. If that demand drops to, say, 50%, it could cripple their economy and force them to play fairer. The challenge is that much of the world doesn’t share China’s mindset. China seeks global dominance and is patient, willing to play the long game, even if it takes generations.

PoppaBear1950

CHINAS ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING AS WE SPEAK!! HOW DUMB ARE YOU FAR LEFT LUNATICS?

Pops4444

Nope. Wrong again. China wants to deal already. Stay in your lane.

Bald-Eagle39

&gt;The geopolitical chessboard is complex, and without a cohesive plan, the U.S. risks falling further behind in this high-stakes game of global influence.

The only entity in the US capable of making these moves is the federal government and the GOP can't allow the government to be successful because it's voters are demanding that the federal government be destroyed.

schrodingers_gat

Small businesses on both sides will be hurt. Consumers who want their items will be hurt. Any US company that requires rare earth minerals won't get them unless China decides to sell or Japan decides to part with some of their one year stockpile. If US bond rates continue to rise, everyone in the US loses.  
  
Short answer, no one wins in a trade war which is why there hasn't really been one in the past 95 years.

Paperman_82

Tariffs are a regressive tax on consumption, so their primary effect on Americans will be that consumers will see large increases in their cost of living and lower their consumption. However, we also sell things like Airplanes to China, and between that and lower consumption, America is likely to see a recession, lower tax revenues, etc.

China will see a big impact to exports, which will also impact their economy, where manufacturing is a bright spot, so it is also likely to be quite painful for them.

It’s unclear at this point who this will be more painful for. Both countries rely on each other heavily for trade, and it’s unclear how the global economy will reorient around this disruption.

In this game of chicken, with both countries feeling significant pain, the more interesting question might be how domestic politics will impact their leaders’ willingness to blink first. My money would be on the US since a free press and democratic system is going to quickly put pressure on the person who started this to do something to fix it, and Xi will feel strong pressure to not capitulate to imperialist Americans and shame the nation.

probablymagic

U.S. consumers.   We are about to see imported goods being 20-25% more expensive unless there’s a simultaneous drop in demand from an economic collapse.

As someone from the UK who imports goods, I would be interested to hear from any US importers who ordered goods before the whole tariff hike and now have goods in transit and will have to pay a huge unexpected fee when they arrive in the US. 


I had a similar experience during covid when the cost of shipping suddenly skyrocketed, but it was too late to cancel the order. The unexpected fees nearly bankrupted me. 


There must be lots of small US firms in this situation

ABlokeFromChester

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As a proportion of GDP exports from China to the US are not that large. It's about 3% of GDP. As a result, I don't expect the Chinese economy to suffer that much.

The suffering will be different in the two economies. High prices for some goods will be the problem in the US. Unemployment in some industries will be the problem in China.

RobThorpe

The issue is the us has defined a finite game

“Winning the trade war”

The chinease etc have defined an infinite game

“We will survive for as long as is necessary to ensure our nation is not bullied”


One of these objectives has an end. Like football or baseball the timer finishes and we tot up the score and determine a winner and loser....we dont say wait wait wait if only we have another 20 minutes i know we can come back. Just doesnt happen

The chinease have defined a game where the objective is to stay in the game.  Their objective its to just continue as best they can and ensure it doesnt end their nation. Theres always another round

By the way its been framed the US is on a timer, so its the one who has to make the moves, its the one that will get frustrated its the one thinking this ends when They call time. It doesn't, in that scenario the us has already lost because its set the rules of this particular game against itself

Alib668

Developments in US trade policy under President Trump raise significant concerns globally, particularly with potential tariff increases affecting many nations.

US Tariffs and Global Trade War

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